Southwestern United States drought of the 21st century presages drier conditions into the future

Abstract

Intense drought has occurred in the United States Southwest this century, causing unprecedented stress to water resources. Here we use paleoclimate and instrumental records to establish that the recent temperature rise is incompatible with random draws from past fluctuations, including the current period of warming. Consistent with and extending previous reconstructions, we find that the ongoing drought is the most intense at the 21-year scale back to 600 CE. Evaluation using standardized regression coefficients shows that recent warming damps the effect of moisture delivery on the Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index by approximately one-third. The probability of full recovery of the current moisture deficit is unlikely even by mid-century and about five percent in 10-15 years. Evaluation of future climate simulations indicates increasing regional temperature stress and soil moisture depletion, and coupled with long recovery periods for moisture delivery, very low chance for regional mega-reservoirs to regain full-capacity levels assuming current demand.