Long-Term Model Simulation of Environmental Conditions to Identify Externally Forced Signals in Biological Time Series

Abstract

A case study is presented to demonstrate the added value which can be gained from combining long-term biological observations with model-based hind casts of physical environmental observations. The study utilizes numerically simulated high-resolution fields of currents and water levels in the North Sea to investigate the relevance of hydrodynamic conditions for the occurrence of phytoplankton blooms, as observed at Helgoland Roads in the inner German Bight. Inter-annual variations as well as a possible regime shift are discussed with regard to the spring mean diatom day. The long-term high-resolution simulations of the North Sea circulation are taken from the data base ‘coastDat’.