Abstract
Besides climate change, increased shipping intensity, aquaculture, tourism, demography and the demand for renewable energies are key drivers of change for coastal and marine environments. In the North Sea, the emergence of offshore wind farms forms a critically discussed symbol for a change towards an “industrialisation” of marine waters, but as well a symbol for a policy towards renewable energies. This article describes the integrative approach used in the BMBF funded research project “Zukunft Kueste – Coastal Futures”. Starting from an assessment of human activities in German coastal and marine areas this approach uses different future scenarios to describe potential development pathways and consequences, which are related to different sea use patterns in terms of sustainable regional development, socio-economic structures and ecosystem impacts. The scenario based impact assessment is accompanied by a comprehensive assessment of local, regional and national stakeholders. The overall integrated approach of the project therefore describes along the structure of drivers, pressures, state changes, impacts and response (DPSIR) potential interactions of spatial developments by using a case study approach focussing on the development of offshore wind farms as thematic issue and the North Sea coast of Schleswig-Holstein as regional example. Therefore the project works towards a conceptual and methodological basis for integrated assessments of coastal and marine change, which can assist in the development of coastal governance structures for sustainable development of coastal and marine regions.
